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A and H total market value adds has 15,000,000,000,000, compared to Chinese GDP half frequent spot, but this proportion's global history mean value probably is 1:1, the stock price underestimate is very obvious. But the stock price underestimated that not necessarily will bounce immediately, so long as will also have the falling story to be possible saying that the stock price may also fall is lower. I thought that A primary cause was, Lian Zuihui the scary several masters, probably had not mentioned many dreadful “the ghost story” to come recently. I hear the most dreadful story nothing but is, the size non-people, have not losted hope, but also wants to continue to sell the stock, own happy establishment in above general investor's pain. It is estimated that this story, very difficult to let the stock market innovate again lowly, because many stocks distributed dividends rate already were higher than the bank deposit interest rate even rate on loan, what these company's size non-(will not take the cash in this price reducing to do? ), but after inferior company's size non-reducing, also will increase holds the high quality company's stock----Everybody do not want to forget, the size non-is not likes in 6000 spots buying the stock, then human who sells out in 1700 spots, very possible exactly opposite.
However, I did not dare saying that A will rise sharply immediately, because human nature greedy and the frightened pendulum clock suspended now “frightened” this head, because of our country's money supply in September also in contraction. In September China money supply speed-up continues to slide. Since the broad money supply (M2) speed-up has set the record of 5 year May's 40 month new low, grows compared to the same period has 15.29%. The narrow sense money supply (M1) and the market amount of currency in circulation (M0) speed-up also drops to the unit digit, grows respectively is compared to the same period 9.43% and 9.28%. Central Bank's report demonstration up to the end of September, M2, M1, the M0 remaining sum respectively is 45,290,000,000,000, 15,570,000,000,000, and 3,170,000,000,000 Yuan (Renminbi, similarly hereinafter), M2, M1 distinguished low 0.71 and 2.05 percentage points compared to the end of last month. jinnian qian 9 ge yue puts in the cash 135,000,000,000 Yuan only, little puts in 60,800,000,000 Yuan compared to the same period.
Reason which rises sharply as for H, is actually not because the local investor is not so greedy and fears, in fact, the Hong Kong stock market falls from 32,000 spots to 11,000 spots, H falls from 20,000 spots to 5000 spots, the loss which the local investor and the stock gods receive not is smaller than the domestic fund and the investor, the present frightened degree will not be lower than the domestic investor. The reason that H rises quickly compared to A, is because European and American countries' Central Bank great seal bill cuts rate largely, the Investment bank (refers to these which has not gone out of business) the financing cost is lower than H to distribute dividends greatly rate, therefore recent H (bank stock rose particularly) many, estimated that also will continue to rise---Besides China's bank stock, other place's bank stock only then P did not have E mostly.
Although China's economy has in the third quarter slows down, but the social commodity total volume of retail sales continual four month speed-up surpasses 23%, middle several province this year's GDP the speed-up possibly surpasses 20%, what a pity the very few people pay attention, everybody elongated the neck to look that “the long jab Wall Street's financial storm”, or, listened in reverent attention overseas professor to speak “China's eight big crises”. China's economic system and the economic reform, are always from become a body, was not Chicago school of thought or any school of thought can explain. Why do we study the countryside land circulation not well to the Chinese economy and stock market's influence? Did many tens of thousands hundred million several hundred thousand hundred million properties, what have to the bank achievement to affect suddenly? Has what to the monetary policy to affect? . . . . . . |
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